Day 549. Two simple so powerful lists
Found on theberry.com
Auteur/autrice : marc
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The Greek crisis and the game theory
https://unsplash.com/margaretbarley Day 548. Greece and Europe are arm-wrestling. Yes, Greece needs to repay its debt, we all agree, including the Greek government. Although I am no subject-matter expert in the Greek crisis, I have read tons of articles on the whys and the hows of this crisis, and no one mentionned the fact that Yanis Varoufakis, the Minister of Finance, that everybody seems to like to hate, is one of the best experts in game theory.
Read in Wikipedia: « Game theory is mainly used in economics, political science, and psychology« . Interesting that the first three topics are the one listed here. I would be a member of the famous troika, I would be worried playing chess with one of the best masters that exist. Imagine trying to beat Kasparov. You would probably gather all the best chess experts to get the best player to play. But still, there will be some uncertainty.
Varoufakis and Tsipras seem to place a big bet on organizing the referendum this coming Sunday, but I bet this esteemed professor knows what he’s doing and knows the odds are in his favor. This is what probably worries the troika: what they saw as a dwarf they could command may actually be the David who defeated Goliath with his sling. The story’s not over and our game theorist is certainly enjoying the game.
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Follow One Course Until Success
Day 547. FOCUS!
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The simple demonstration that proves debt makes people poorer
Day 546. The promise of credit houses makes is to treat yourself now, pay later. The problem is this promise makes the bank richer and the debtor poorer. What? This is not what your banker told you. No, because your banker has a direct interest to lend you money: to make more money. Nothing’s fundamentally wrong with that or with debt, but depending on what you are purchasing with debt, it will have an effect on you wealth. Want a demonstration? Here’s a simple one.If you have a car, it’s almost sure you paid it with a credit. If not and paid it in cash, bravo! But for the sake of the demonstration, let’s say you have (or will) paid with a credit. The car of your dreams costs 20,000 dollars (or euros, or pounds, chose your currency). Your financial institution proposes you to purchase it with a 5% interest credit over 6 years. You are lined up to repay 322 dollars per month for 72 months, a total of 23,191 dollars. 6 years later, the value of your car will have drop by close to 65%, and if sold will bring you, let’s say 7,000 dollars. This means this car will have cost you slightly more than 16,000 dollars over 6 years.
Now imagine you set aside 322 dollars per month for 6 years at 2.5% interest annually (less than the 5% for sure, but easily found anywhere). After 72 months, you will have 24,985 dollars interests included (in this case you gave your money to the bank who in exchange pays you interest). With this amount you pay cash your 20,000 dollars car, while having earned close to 5,000 dollars. The question of course is yes, but during 6 years if you needed a car, what did you do? You could have taken public transport, rent a car when needed, or carpool. If you spent less than 16,000 dollars, you have started a virtuous circle that will put you in control and will have your money work for you!
However, beyond the fact that you are now in control, your financial institution will start a different dialogue with you. Yes they paid 2.5% interest on the money you left on your account, but rest assured it will have used this money to lend it to somebody else, generating more than the 2.5% it served you, so net, it has made money and can count on a good customer.
Of course in the example above we should have factored inflation and other factors on car pricing, but even if we complicate the example, the math will stay the same, and it comes to a simple principle: the lender gets richer, the borrower gets poorer. There is one, and only one, exception to this principle and it’s when the loan is contracted to purchase an assets that generates more than it costs. In other words, if your car will allow you to make money, is necessary to make money and the sum you will make covers the price of the repayment, then this debt is a good debt. This is the principle number 2 of the 3 rules I explained in a previous post.
We will see in a following post that this does not apply only to cars or houses, but to other goods, that should always be acquired in cash!
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3 simple principles to get the unexpected expected
https://unsplash.com/matthewwiebe Day 545. No projects, no plans ever run as expected. You should always expect the unexpected, but not be frozen by the unexpected. It may not happen, however, to avoid really bad surprises, here are 3 simple tips to get ready when the unexpected occur:
- Change is natural so welcome the unexpected. No need to have regrets, what’s gone’s gone! Be ready to embrace change by being flexible and not surprised.
- Have plans B ready. When the unexpected strikes, you may need to slightly change directions. Have one or many plans B ready, in all the 3 directions of any project: time, quality and resources. If the unexpected strikes, trigger one of those plans. This may require additional planning, but you won’t regret it.
- Be a lifetime learner and ensure your team is. When the unexpected strikes, stop, reflect, document and learn. Nothing’s best to learn and grow.
Nobody likes a project that goes in the wrong direction. By embracing those 3 simple principles, you’ll ensure that you can deliver confidently what you forecasted. Not rocket science, just confidence and flexibility.
